Our paper suggests a new approach to assessment of external student migration consequences. While considering the socioeconomic impact of youth intellectual potential on economic and human development, we have used the regression method for forecasting the most obvious indicators of the country’s intellectual capability losses. These include the following: the ratio of students (or university staff as a connected indicator) and total population, economically active and employed population. All of the estimated data include projected losses of talented students due to their studying abroad. We have employed the data of Ukraine as an origin country to emphasize that intellectual migration can cause significant destructive consequences for national competitiveness. In particular, we have indicated the point at the double decrease of all indicators of the intellectual potential losses. In general, it is possible to achieve different types of indicators in 16–20 years. In conclusion, we argue that passive policy with regard to external student migration can lead to disastrous effects for national competitiveness from the perspective of innovation and development, which are driven by talents.
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