Economics & Sociology

ISSN: 2071-789X eISSN: 2306-3459 DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X
Index PUBMS: f5512f57-a601-11e7-8f0e-080027f4daa0
Article information
Title: The Concept of FTS Anylysis in Forecasting Trends of Exchange Rate Changes
Issue: Vol. 7, No 2, 2014
Published date: 20-05-2014 (print) / 20-05-2014 (online)
Journal: Economics & Sociology
ISSN: 2071-789X, eISSN: 2306-3459
Authors: Ireneusz Miciuła
Keywords: forecasting, econometric model, FTS analysis, exchange rate
DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-2/14
Index PUBMS: 1efae7ee-aa13-11e7-8eae-080027f4daa0
Language: English
Pages: 172-182 (11)

The crisis in financial markets has contributed to a significant downturn in the global economy. Significant perturbations and high volatility have also been observed in the forex market. The purpose of this article is to determine which variables from the financial and commodity market affect the exchange rate changes. The article presents the concept of FTS analysis (Fundamental – Technical – Speculative) used to predict the direction of exchange rate changes. The author’s FTS concept is a combination of two most popular forecasting methods and an attempt to add (parameterize) information on financial institutions’ interventions in the forex market and generally understood speculations. The paper specifies explanatory variables and determines the nature of the occurring interdependencies. The FTS analysis allows for developing a computer system for decision support in the management of foreign exchange risk. At the same time, the paper draws attention to the complexity of the issue and shows possible directions for further research.