Economics & Sociology

ISSN: 2071-789X eISSN: 2306-3459 DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X
Index PUBMS: f5512f57-a601-11e7-8f0e-080027f4daa0
Abstract

In the presented paper assumption is being raised that ceteris paribus forecasted energy efficiency until the year 2050 reveals competitive potential, which could be reached if technological progress is ongoing and no radical changes in the energy consumption culture are observed. The research methodology is as follows. In order to clarify what trends of energy efficiency change are preconditioned by the structure of the economy, technological potential and behavioral patterns, activity level and energy intensity in the household sector are forecasted for the selected European countries – Poland, Lithuania and Germany. Lithuania and Poland represent here the countries slightly less economically developed as compared to highly developed Germany. Long-range energy forecasting software LEAP, developed by Stockholm Environment Institute is being employed for the long-term forecasting of energy use and energy intensities in the household sectors. The obtained results, as we have expected, allow verifying if consistent patterns of energy intensity change is existent for currently comparatively less developed and better countries, and if such patterns differ. Peculiarities of energy intensity change in less developed and more developed European countries are to be economically interpreted. The obtained results will allow to judge about change of competitiveness of the considered countries. Provided insights can be instrumental for devising national economic policies oriented on more efficient energy use in the long run.

Bibliography

1. Balkytė, A., Tvaronavičienė, M. (2010). Perception of competitiveness in the context of sustainable development: facets of “Sustainable competitiveness”. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 11(2), 341-365.

2. Bojnec, S., Papler, D. (2011). Economic efficiency, energy consumption and sustainable development. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 12(2), 353-374.

3. Dudzevičiūtė, G., Mačiulis, A., Tvarоnavičienė, M. (2014). Structural changes оf economies: Lithuania in the glоbal cоntext. Technological and economic development of economy, 20(2), 353-370. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2014.915597

4. Duran, E., Aravena, C., Aguilar, R. (2015). Analysis and decomposition of energy consumption in the Chilean industry. Energy Policy, 86, 552-561, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.07.033

5. Firlej, K. A. (2012). Energy intensity of GDP in the light of energy policy objectives in Poland until 2030. Conference: 10th International Scientific Conference on Hradec Economic Days 2012: Economic Development and Management of Regions Location: Hradec

6. Hasanbeigi, A., Price, L., Zhang, C. (2014). Comparison of iron and steel production energy use and energy intensity in China and the U.S. Journal Of Cleaner Production, 65, 108-119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.09.047

7. Heaps, C. G. (2016). Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. Stockholm Environment Institute. Somerville, MA, USA. https://www.energycommunity.org

8. Ignatavičius, R., Tvaronavičienė, M., Piccinetti, L. (2015). Sustainable development through technology transfer networks: case of Lithuania. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 4(3), 261-267. http://dx.doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2015.4.3(6)

9. Kasperowicz, R., Pinczyński, M., Kumar Tiwari, A., Nawrot, Ł. (2017). Reengineering of electricity market monitoring. Economics and Sociology, 10(4), 175-188.

10. Locmelis, K., Bariss, U. Blumberga, D. International Scientific Conference – Environmental and Climate Technologies, Conect 2016. Book Series: Energy Procedia, 113, 362-368. Published: 2017.

11. Nawrot, Ł, (2013). Renewable energy sources as a new research area in tourism. Poznań University of Economics Review, 4, 67-82.

12. Passerini, F., Sterling, R., Keane, M., Klobut, K., Costa, A. (2017). Energy efficiency facets: innovative district cooling systems. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 4(3), 310-318. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2017.4.3S(6)

13. Tvaronavičienė, M. (2016). Energy security and energy efficiency issues: household perspective in European countries. The 9th International Scientific Conference “Business and Management 2016”, May 12-13, 2016, Vilnius, Lithuania Vilnius: Technika, ISSN 2

14. Tvaronavičienė, M., Černevičiūtė, J. (2015). Technology transfer phenomenon and its impact on sustainable development. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 5(1), 87-97. http://dx.doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2015.5.1(7)

15. Tvaronavičienė, M., Mačiulis, A., Lankauskienė, T., Raudeliūnienė, J., Dzemyda, I. (2015). Energy security and sustainable competitiveness of industry development. Economic research = Ekonomska istraživanja, 28(1), 502-516. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13316

16. Tvaronavičienė, M., Gatautis, R. (2017). Peculiarities of income distribution in selected countries. Economics and Sociology, 10(4), 113-123. http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2017/10-4/9

17. Vojtovic, S., Stundziene, A., & Kontautiene, R. (2018). The Impact of Socio-Economic Indicators on Sustainable Consumption of Domestic Electricity in Lithuania. Sustainability, 10(2), 162.