Economics & Sociology

ISSN: 2071-789X eISSN: 2306-3459 DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X
Index PUBMS: f5512f57-a601-11e7-8f0e-080027f4daa0
Article information
Title: Business cycle, asymmetries and non-linearity: The Bolivian case
Issue: Vol. 13, No 2, 2020
Published date: 06-2020 (print) / 06-2020 (online)
Journal: Economics & Sociology
ISSN: 2071-789X, eISSN: 2306-3459
Authors: Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero
Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno

Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez
Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora

Sacnicté Valdez del Río
Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora
Keywords: Markovs’ chains, business cycle, natural rate of growth, Bolivia
DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2020/13-2/2
Index PUBMS: c8516b6c-bef1-11ea-9cc3-fa163e0fa1a0
Language: English
Pages: 26-42 (17)
JEL classification: F44, F47

In this paper, we deal with the problem of measuring business cycles: short, medium or long-term, with both theoretical and empirical discussions on the regularity of fluctuations versus asymmetries in their measurement phases. To achieve this, the approach is based on the combination of deviations on the level of trends (alternative filters) with the algorithm of Harding and Pagan (2002). At the same time, effective rates of economic growth by Markov’s chains was considered in order to identify non-linear regimes of expansion and economic contraction. Finally, quantifications on the natural rate of growth for Bolivia are offered under a sustained expansion regime from 1950 to 2015. The results suggest that due to asymmetries and the manner in which the business cycle is measured, we observe longer duration of a business cycle when it was measured from busts rather than from booms


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